Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 17.311842 19.864631 22.845483 26.630181 31.376782 37.229892 45.152527
2025-03-02 14.034490 17.087090 20.984039 26.471023 34.257924 45.364924 63.361570
2025-03-09 12.344137 15.620971 20.060994 26.783981 37.246219 54.016574 85.858700
2025-03-16 10.812776 14.040962 18.595880 25.855026 37.943963 59.163853 105.221267
2025-03-23 9.869775 13.113569 17.860373 25.792068 39.887937 66.999465 135.052434
2025-03-30 8.857929 11.951233 16.590877 24.601815 39.514053 70.216100 156.780694
2025-04-06 7.976155 10.886644 15.334570 23.211065 38.418894 71.515398 174.692415
2025-04-13 7.296138 10.063822 14.366667 22.167200 37.758526 73.574134 197.395853
2025-04-20 7.408927 10.468626 15.417983 24.902631 45.530383 99.972795 352.936677
2025-04-27 7.181604 10.305762 15.491474 25.803911 49.583647 119.125545 535.404918
2025-05-04 6.680817 9.654711 14.649534 24.754399 48.711607 122.416381 629.500657
2025-05-11 6.493288 9.507207 14.682253 25.498681 52.562470 144.805875 1016.468205
2025-05-18 6.175653 9.133595 14.300205 25.379950 54.336775 162.011537 1562.422059
2025-05-25 5.881368 8.779553 13.922923 25.222885 56.020837 181.059129 2577.772032
2025-06-01 5.669561 8.551445 13.757890 25.515459 59.166023 211.335464 5603.624891
2025-06-08 5.347324 8.106467 13.135171 24.648161 58.427846 220.181758 8988.473193
2025-06-15 5.140500 7.853801 12.866299 24.589353 60.363175 248.582930 27380.437261
2025-06-22 4.841697 7.418228 12.201596 23.476742 58.391338 248.891514 47656.060333
2025-06-29 4.544915 6.972479 11.489430 22.174785 55.486573 240.348860 63048.443038
2025-07-06 4.300379 6.611228 10.926862 21.196158 53.568333 238.371361 119923.712603
2025-07-13 4.411039 6.904859 11.712587 23.758077 65.735308 381.780765 NaN
2025-07-20 4.352139 6.878366 11.832370 24.600415 71.723428 495.906212 NaN
2025-07-27 4.145926 6.562589 11.314821 23.619457 69.466777 495.309517 NaN